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actuary on FIRE

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actuary on FIRE
General Finance
financial independence, early retirement, personal finance
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Blogger Bio

Net worth:
Massachusetts, United States
Life stage:
DIK (Dual Income, Kids)
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Latest Blog Posts

You know what annoys and frustrates me? Lack of transparency, and lack of value-add from money managers. A case in point is Betterment’s new portfolio options. But you’re in luck, one service I believe I can provide you with is to peel back the investment-speak, cut through all the crap and determine whether there is any real value for you. Are you a Betterment investor like me? it you’ve read about my portfolio ...
Posted: Sep 15 2017 @ 7:00 AM
Folks we need to sit down and talk about sequence of returns risk. What is it, how can we measure it, and how it can bite you on the ass! So stay with me as we dive into this a bit more. Sequence of return risk (SORR) is rarely mentioned in the mainstream finance and actuarial literature. I have never come across it in discussions with employers about their 401k plans, ...
Posted: Sep 12 2017 @ 7:00 AM
Oh geez you guys have pushed me to it! I really wanted to avoid blogging about blogging and producing a blog report. However I’ve read so many monthly reports, and in particular, month-one blog reports that I feel sidelined. But don’t expect some kind of uber organized plan from me here, because you will be sorely disappointed. There are so many superb blogs around, and having had the insight from reading ...
Posted: Sep 08 2017 @ 7:32 AM
If you are on the road to financial independence then you need to read fewer listicles. They are not going to help you get there. Why? Let’s dive in. 1. Emotion Grabbing Listicle headlines are attention grabbing and prey on your emotion. They pique the reader’s interest with questions and emotionally charged words. A case in point is my use of “unbelievable” in the title. Even using a “6” in the title and not ...
Posted: Sep 05 2017 @ 7:00 AM
Please see my guest post on thinksaveretire.com Thanks for stopping by!   The post Guest post – My Car Crash of a Portfolio appeared first on actuary on FIRE. ...
Posted: Aug 30 2017 @ 10:10 AM
Have you seen the FIRE Prowess Gauge from the Swan? Have you taken the challenge, faced your demons and calculated your score? No? Well the first step is to make this simple calculation: FIRE Prowess = Change in Net Worth / Total Gross Income If you have tracked your net worth with spreadsheets or Personal Capital and you have your tax return to hand then this is a pretty quick calculation. But ...
Posted: Aug 18 2017 @ 8:44 AM
The Green Swan has created a nice indicator of your progress and commitment to FIRE. It’s a very simple calculation but actually encompasses a number of subtleties. To calculate your number you should calculate: FIRE Prowess = Change in Net worth / Total Gross Income So it is a measure of how fast your net worth is increasing relative to your income. For those on an early path to FI with little ...
Posted: Aug 16 2017 @ 9:53 PM
You know what’s a really scary combination? Sharks in a tornado? Nope. Snakes on a plan? Nope. What should really chill your blood is stagflation. This is the ugly stepson of growth stagnation and high inflation. Stagflation – uh what? Stagflation is the combination of poor economic growth, usually combined with recession features, such as high unemployment along with a rapid increase in prices. Poor growth or a recession on its own ...
Posted: Aug 16 2017 @ 1:44 PM
Here's two things that I have been thinking about recently. Equity Risk Premium There has been a lot written lately about the anticipated low equity returns coming over the next few years. Ballooning valuations have been driving down forward-looking valuations. See ERN, Bogle, Seeking Alpha, … etc. But what does this mean? Well, if you need a real return of 4% in the future and stocks might only be expected to have a 6% ...
Posted: Aug 11 2017 @ 5:11 PM
Do you know what is driving me crazy at the moment? It’s trying to figure out why common FI thinking is so different to the retirement establishment. By “establishment”, I mean the institutional investment industry and the actuarial profession that advises on all aspect of retirement risk. I’m interested in why this thinking is so different; is one way of thinking better than the other, is one group simply wrong? So c’mon! Let’s ...
Posted: Jul 31 2017 @ 9:27 PM


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