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Novel Investor
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Chicago, Illinois, United States
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SINK (Single Income, No Kids)
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Latest Blog Posts

What’s the biggest determinant of investing success? Smarts, information, strategy, or skill are all worthy possibilities. But one stands out above all the others: The truly successful stock market investors of history have been no more intelligent than most less successful investors. In most instances — they have had no better sources of information than […] The post The Uncomfortable Truth appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: May 22 2020 @ 11:27 AM
In a perfect world — assuming everything goes as planned — the best time to sell an investment is at its peak price. In reality, that’s called luck. That’s why selling is an imperfect art. The overwhelming outcome for most sell decisions is too soon or too late. Warren Buffett actually recognized it early on […] The post Warren Buffett: The Best Reason for Selling appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: May 20 2020 @ 7:00 PM
In a matter of two months, a miraculous number of people became experts in virology in order to predict something they know nothing about. That’s the state of the market today. It also happens to be the state of the market every day — minus the new armchair virologists. Investors want to know what happens […] The post Wise Words on Forecasting appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: May 15 2020 @ 11:04 AM
In investing, nothing is written in stone. Yet, investors often operate as if the opposite is true…to their own detriment. One mistake investors make is to focus too much on the averages of history while ignoring the deviation from the averages that always seem to happen in the short term. The clearest example of this […] The post Peter Bernstein: The Lesson of History appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: May 13 2020 @ 6:30 PM
April’s unemployment numbers jumped to 14.7%. The market was up 13% in April! Earlier this week, Disney cut its dividend after reporting a 93% drop in earnings. The next day, it’s stock was up 4%! How can the market move higher with so much bad economic news around? It defies common sense. Or does it? […] The post Dazed and Confused About the Market appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: May 08 2020 @ 10:57 AM
The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting this past weekend had a few notable differences this year. Missing from the meeting were Charlie Munger’s witty quips, a packed stadium, and the often-repeated meaning-of-life questions. Instead, it took on a more serious tone. For Buffett, the focus is on the survival of Berkshire. The single message: risk management. […] The post Notes from the 2020 Berkshire Meeting appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: May 06 2020 @ 5:14 PM
The stock market, in the early 1980s, experienced a speculative bubble in hard disk drive manufacturers. All the ingredients existed for the new industry to succeed and for investors to lose money. The computer industry has a long history with new technology that increased performance coupled with gradually declining costs. Hard drive technology was no […] The post Speculative Market Myopia appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: May 01 2020 @ 10:54 AM
Warren Buffett appeared on Adam Smith’s Money Game in 1998. It was the follow-up show to Adam Smith’s Money World that ended a year or two earlier. Smith (aka George Goodman) interviewed Buffett around the time of the 1998 annual meeting. One of the questions Smith asked was related to I.Q. – combining brilliance and […] The post Buffett: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: Apr 29 2020 @ 5:38 PM
…at particular times a great many stupid people have a great deal of stupid money. Walter Bagehot has come up with some wonderful lines in his day. That line, in particular, perfectly describes a recurring theme in financial history. He wrote those words in 1856 about an event that happened in 1720 — The South […] The post Stupid Money appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: Apr 24 2020 @ 10:23 AM
Seth Klarman's rare classic is about managing risk. Borrowing Ben Graham's primary concept for the title, the book expands on the value investing philosophy and why it's so successful. The post Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman appeared first on Novel Investor. ...
Posted: Apr 22 2020 @ 1:43 PM


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